April 13, 2013.

NORTH KOREA PROBLEMS & OTHERS


I am not very savvy or privy to what these North Koreans are up to - but we do know that they are dirt-poor, whilst their leaders continue to do their sabre-rattling, and threatening world peace.

From what I have read, South Korea, in my view, has been very accommodating to NK in the past and even to the present days - they have given millions of $ in food aids, industrial cooperation, e.g. the huge Kaesong Industrial Park in NK is built by the South Koreans, of course, to promote SK prodcuts - but there are some 50,000 North Korean workers working in this Park alone, at least earning some income for themselves! Every time the NKs perceived some "threats" they turn on the screws - and now the Park is shut down and the 50,000+ NKs are out of work - on their government orders!

North Korea continues to persist with its bomb and missiles threats - as this latest incident shows - and a disunited world stands by and watch, seemingly powerless to intervene effectively. In these respects, NK has broken strings of UN sanctions embargo over its armaments sales to rogue nations like Iran, and its continuing long-range missile tests - with hardly any concern or fear over retaliation by the international community.

In this respect, in my view, it is the same behavior exhibited by Iran and Cuba. Cuba is a closed Communist State under Castro for years, and now under his Brother Raul - but because of its close proximity to the U.S. continental shelf, it will not be able to "misbehave" that easily.

But Iran is a different matter - they too are on the verge of being a nuclear power - and their warmongering to destroy Israel is, in my view, all too real. Yes, Israel, we all know has long had nuclear capability - but, I stand corrected here - they can "behave" more correctly - presumably like the U.S., French and U.K., Russia and China too I reckon - who are also nuclear powers, in that they will not do "first strike" unless provoked with a nuclear strike by, say, Iran or North Korea.

Pyongyang should emulate Myanmar's (Burma's) unbelievable transition to some form of democracy and an open society - after its years of dictatorship and military rule. The international community did all kinds of economic and military sanctions, but - in rogue nations like Iran, North Korea, Myanmar - where dictators rule with iron fists - the general population is powerless to do anything substantial to change its nations' directions. Aung San Suyi, the iconic Iron Lady of Burma, was incarcerated for years in her fight for Burmese freedom - but, lo and behold! it then happened! One decent military dictator and his gang decided that it was time to open up, give up their nuclear ambitions (they tried to get North Korean technology here), give Aung San a chance - and we see it happening now. International sanctions worked here? I doubt it.

Actually, for years, North Korea has asked U.S. to sign a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War 1950-1953. From that date, till now, only an "Armistice" was signed to end the War, which meant that, technically, South Korea and U.S. were still at war with NK.

For instance, on 27 July 2011, NK again asked the U.S. to sign a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War. In an editorial marking the 58th Anniversary of an Armistice that ended the Korean War 1950-1953, the North Korea'a official news agency, Korean Central News Agency, insisted a peace treaty would go a long way towards resolving a deadlock over Pyongyang's pursuit of nuclear weapons.

On March 13, 2013, the former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, Donald Gregg just returned from a trip to North Korea. He is of the view that North Korean genuinely wants a peace treaty. He further adds that what the North Koreans call "the old way" which was "give up your nuclear weapons and then we talk" is going to get nowhere with them.

The 6-Nations Talk Group (North Korea, South Korea, U.S. China, Japan and Russia) was initially set up to provide the North with security guarantees and economic assistance in return for its nuclear disarmament. The North says it is continually threatened by SK and U.S., especially with the presence of 28,500 U.S. troops on SK soil - a legacy of the Korean War, and thus its reliance on nuclear weapons. But it is prepared to resume this 6-Nations talks without any pre-conditions, its Foreign Minister was quoted then.

The Obama Administration again on 13/04/2013 look to China to rein in its unruly neighbor, and with only the counter-threat of overwhelming superiority in conventional weaponry (the NK has over a million soldiers, the SK has some 650,000) to offer the North Koreans, the U.S. has little choice but to rely on Beijing to de-escalate tensions in a peaceful manner.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry just held a series of meetings with Chinese leaders in his visit to Beijing before proceeding to Seoul - where he issued a warning to Pyongyang to cease and desist its 2,500-mile mid-range missiles testing/firings expected to proceed next week. These missiles can reach Japan and the U.S. Guam bases, and hence the flurry of early warnings to be prepared for such bombings.

China has been a long-time ally of NK since the Korean War, and provides the North with most of its fuel and much of its food aids.

It has been said that China's main interest in North Korea is not its de-nuclearization as the West keeps demanding, but its priority is to see to it that its neighbor and friend, the North Korean government does not fall - and this has been its strategy over the years. Whilst many South Koreans fear the cost of unification (same same as the West Germans did those days of East German unification) with their brothers to the north, China opposes that even more stridently. China's fears are that a reunited Korea with its U.S-backing, will spell more trouble for is nation - notwithstanding its exasperation at the Kim dynasty's uncanny ability to wag China's dog. China remains deeply wary of any American military built-up in its backyard, as the U.S. continues to do so, with its now-shifting emphasis and strategy to contain China in its expansion paths.

China is suspicious that the containment efforts towards North Korea will be part of the long-term U.S. strategy to expand its influence in the region, and ring in fast-growing China with countries closer to Washington. Already, its navy chiefs recently announced that they will be more active in the Asian naval arenas.

Your call for a peace treaty with North Korea is the way to go - if the U.S. is serious in its efforts for world peace, since, as I said, such calls were made many many times before by North Korea itself - although China, as stated above, will not allow North Korea to be swallowed by the South. But, with a peace treaty, the North may let-up like Myanmar, and prosperity may begin, although the Kim dynasty will need a tsunami revolution to change for the better!


Best regards, Eu Ming